If Iran and Oman choose to charge a fee for rendering services to vessels using their territorial waters, so be it. The US is indulging in an irrationally self-destructive act, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Delhi must now purge the delusional hopes of being a 'counterweight' to China in the US calculus, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Frankly, was it really necessary in the middle of a fratricidal war for External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar to travel to Abu Dhabi for a one-on-one with the sheikh on April 12?Or, for National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to follow up on April 26? Or, for PM Narendra Modi to follow through today? There are no easy answers, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Already, within the week of the election results it became apparent that the Congress' DNA has not changed from its traditional approach to politics as but a game of thrones, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
There are enough people at the top decision-making level in Tehran who are still willing to negotiate, provided Trump can create the right setting for the negotiation to acquire a dynamic of its own, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump has said he would be present at the signing ceremony in Islamabad. Don't be surprised if the Pakistani hosts make it a grand event in the geopolitics of the region. Trump would love that, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Chaffing under public ridicule in the US as well as internationally for having 'lost' the war, Trump is under immense pressure to do something, cautions Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump seems to have estimated that Ghalibaf is a pragmatic politician who is receptive to close relations with the US and is enthusiastic about fostering business and economic ties in particular, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The logic of war plus the gathering storms in US politics as the midterms loom large leave him with no real alternative but to negotiate, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Far from it; the country's resistance to the US, its nuclear ambitions, and its pursuit of influence and proxies across the Middle East are driven by a constant search for independence and security. Thus, Iran will never capitulate. Trump will learn this home truth ultimately, and it is going to be a humbling personal experience that may even destroy his presidency, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Delhi should keep all its options open in what is essentially a transitional period in the geopolitics of energy rather than remain a gatekeeper serving Trump's 'America First', suggests Ambasssador M K Bhadrakumar.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively pushing Trump to take the war to its bitter finish and 'erase' Iran's presence in the geopolitics of the region. Simply put, the two most powerful Sunni Arab oligarchies are on the same page as Israel. Such interference increases the risk of a breakdown in dialogue between the US and Iran, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
16 days into the war, US forces were already running out of ground-attack missiles and Israel is about to expend its entire Arrow interceptor missiles by end March. To be sure, the Iranians are watching closely and that explains their defiant stance that 'Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions are met', notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
To be sure, Trump is furious, as the trajectory of the war is in a state of Zugzwang, as chess players call it. Trump and Netanyahu stare at two choices -- retreat in humiliation and concede Tehran's demands -- recognition of its rights, reparations, and binding security guarantees -- or perish in a quagmire, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
As days turn into weeks and America loses more planes, as the destruction of trillions of dollars worth military assets piles up, and dead bodies of soldiers return in ever greater numbers in coffins, Trump will have to answer some very difficult questions to save his presidency, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The entire US ecosystem built over decades at the bases in the Gulf region, especially the UAE, costing trillions of dollars have been decimated, dealing a mortal blow to the US Central Command's war capability,' points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The threat of wars hovers over the negotiations in Oman, but the good part is that Trump called the talks to be 'very good' and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that they 'constitute a step forward', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Whether Trump will actually press ahead with the oil sanctions remains unclear, since keeping Russian oil out of the world market risks high oil prices which could boomerang on the US economy and be damaging politically for Trump, points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
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